Value betting is all about finding an edge over the bookmaker. An incorrectly priced bet offers value. This creates a great chance for savvy bettors. Below, we’ll break down value betting, why it’s a strong strategy, and how you can apply it when placing bets at 22Bet login.

Like in financial investing, value betting identifies bets with a higher true probability than the odds suggest. If a bookmaker underestimates a team’s chances, that bet holds value.

Smart bettors recognize the gap between a bet’s true probability and the odds given.

To succeed long-term, you need to find and place value bets consistently. It doesn’t matter if they seem likely or unlikely. Ready to put this strategy into action? Head to 22Bet login and start making smarter bets today.

Probability represents the chance of an event occurring and is expressed as a percentage. Betting is about figuring out how likely an event is to happen. It ranges from 0% (impossible) to 100% (certain). Bookmakers attempt to estimate this probability and convert it into betting odds.

Value betting occurs when the odds you see don’t match the true likelihood of an outcome.

Worked Example

Consider a match where both teams have an equal 50:50 chance of winning (excluding the possibility of a draw). The odds being offered here should be 2.0.

If you bet on this match 100 times, with each side winning 50 times, you’d end up with £0. You’d win £1 fifty times, totaling £50. But you’d also lose £1 fifty times, which is £50 lost. So, there’s no profit or loss.

Let’s say instead the odds offered were 3.0 rather than 2.0. This time, each win gives you £2 instead of £1. Over 100 matches, you win £2 fifty times. That totals £100. You lose £1 the other fifty times, which means you lose £50. In this situation, you would end up £50 in profit.

Bookies Odds

Yet, the bookies never offer ‘fair’ odds. Bookmakers set odds to benefit themselves. They add a profit margin, so the total probabilities of all outcomes go over 100%. In the above example of the 50:50 match, the odds they would offer would likely be 1.90, instead of 2.0. Thus, throughout the 100 matches, you would end up down £5. This is not a value bet.

So if bookmakers’ odds are inherently unfair, how can we ever turn a profit?

Sports4Cast Betting Analysis

At Sports4Cast, we do that. We have odds for thousands of matches and events around the world, and we gather probabilities for all these matches and events. Through our Betting Analysis Services, we look at both to spot mispricings and value bets.

• Assess the probabilities (F4C% column).
• Convert to odds (Value Threshold column).
• Look at bookmakers’ odds (Best Odds column).
• Identify value (Colour coding – green/red/yellow)

This allows you to scour the markets daily and see where value exists.

Each match gets assessed using calculated probabilities. Then, we compare these to the Value Threshold. This helps us decide if there’s a betting opportunity. The best odds are published and color-coded to show whether they are value or not.

Conclusion

Value betting is about finding chances where the odds fail to show the true likelihood of an outcome. Bookmakers add profit margins, but smart bettors can find their own odds. They compare these odds to the market and look for value bets. By consistently betting on undervalued outcomes, you increase your chances of long-term success.

To assess odds, you need to understand probability and market inefficiencies. You can do this yourself or use betting analysis tools. Ready to apply this strategy? Head to 22Bet Login and start placing smarter bets today.